13 Nov 2024
Ann Frances Cooney, employment expert and partner at DWF, has commented on the latest labour market figures in Scotland.
"The latest Scottish labour market figures for July to September 2024 show continued strength against a background of a difficult economic climate. The headline figures for this period show the employment rate in Scotland was 73.7%, up 0.3% over the quarter. By way of comparison, Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 74.8%. The unemployment rate was 3.3%, down 1.1% over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.3%.
The latest early seasonally adjusted estimates for October 2024 indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,466, an increase of 6.2% compared with October 2023. This is lower than the growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period which was 7%. With the recent budget announcing increases to employer National Insurance contributions from April 2025, we can expect employers to pass on this burden to employees to some extent and limit pay increases over the coming months.
We may also see employers limit recruitment to help manage labour costs or even reduce their headcount. The longer term impact on the UK labour market of the budget and the proposed wide-reaching changes to employment law will not be known until next year but the decision to increase both the budgetary and legislative measures affecting employers in the same timeframe means that impact is likely to be substantial."
