05 Jun 2026
By Donald McKinnon, COO at leading independent specialist full-service accountancy firm Wbg.
Fresh from raising a dram to the fortieth anniversary of Fèis Ìle (The Islay Festival) gathering of whisky and Islay fans from across the globe, and ready to raise a dram to the FIFA World Cup kicking off this month, which has delivered a welcome return to sales growth helped by distributors stocking up ahead of the competition, the time seems right to offer some fresh insight into what the next decade could look like for the Scotch Whisky industry.
The industry has welcomed the United States’ removal of tariffs on whisky at the end of April, but businesses remain conscious of how quickly trading conditions can change. The disruption extended beyond exports themselves, impacting supply chains and cask availability through bourbon barrel restrictions
Distillers are increasingly planning for geopolitical volatility rather than assuming long-term stability and recognise the need to prioritise resilience, flexibility, and diversified growth strategies.
Drinks industry consultant André de Almeida says that the last few years have reminded the industry how exposed global businesses can be to events outside their control, with the US remaining critical but no longer viewed as a guaranteed growth engine.
While the US will remain a cornerstone market for Scotch whisky, firms are increasingly caution about over-reliance on any single geography, instead seeking broader international exposure to reduce concentration risk.
The industry is moving from volume growth to profitable growth and with the Scotch Whisky Association forecasting softer global demand and tighter trading conditions, the next decade is likely to focus less on aggressive expansion and more on disciplined, profitable growth.
With capital discipline becoming increasingly important across the sector, it is vital that whisky producers recognise the importance of funding structure, cashflow management, operational efficiency, M&A strategy, restructuring readiness and margin analysis.
Global opportunities remain substantial with major international events such as this month’s FIFA World Cup continuing to demonstrate the power of global recognised Scotch brands, even during periods of wider market softness.
Winning brands are becoming more commercially sophisticated. Successful whisky businesses are no longer simply exporting products, rather, winning brands actively support distributors, education, advocacy, and consumer engagement. And businesses are becoming much more strategic in market execution with brand authenticity mattering more than ever.
These trends reinforce a need for distillers to actively consider long-term business planning, investment strategy, commercial scalability and brand value creation.
While the removal of US tariffs represents a welcome boost for the Scotch whisky sector, the industry’s future success is likely to depend less on short-term trade policy and more on strategic discipline, international diversification, and long-term brand strength.
As de Almeida notes, ‘the most successful businesses know that what worked in the last ten years, will not work for the next ten’.
Through our advisory work across the food and drink sector, we have seen first-hand how whisky businesses have adapted to tariffs, inflationary pressure and changing global demand patterns.
The whisky industry has always been built on relationships, trust and long-term thinking, and that was one of the reasons we launched the 168 Whisky Club more than 12 years ago. What started as a small gathering of like-minded businesspeople with a shared passion for whisky has since grown into a network of more than 350 members from across the whisky, legal, financial, and wider business communities.
The 40th anniversary of Feis Ile on Islay showed that the global enthusiasm for Scotch whisky and the culture surrounding it remains incredibly strong. The sense of community across the industry is unique and we are proud that the 168 Whisky Club continues to play a part in bringing people together.
Over the years, we have developed strong relationships across the whisky industry, acting for many businesses ranging from emerging independent brands through to established operators across the wider supply chain offering a broad range of services, including year-end accounts, management accounts, payroll, audit and tax advice.
Our involvement in the sector goes beyond professional services. We understand the commercial realities facing whisky businesses because we spend time with the people behind them, whether through industry events, the 168 Whisky Club or longstanding client relationships.
